Quick update because I just got back from dinner with Victor Ramdin (who is honestly one of my favorite people in poker, just such a nice genuine person) and one of the tournament directors named Mark, and we split 2 bottles of wine between us and had a ton of seafood and steak, and now I'm really tired and ready to sleep up for tomorrow.

Anyway, I have about 133k chips now which should be just slightly below average, with 69 people left and 56 spots being paid, and we restart at noon tomorrow.

I can't remember any hands right now except that I busted nanonoko with JJ against his 88, which was pretty cool to be honest. :) I love nano but I have to admit it was fun to be the one to bust him. Sorry nano!

Yeah ok time to hit the pillow and get some zzzz's, hopefully I have some rungood in store for myself tomorrow. Also good luck to Victor who is absolutely crushing with over a million chips and is by far the chip leader, and also my friend Ryan Hughes who has something like 230k.

Also I did a quick interview with my good friend Nichoel Jurgens on Live at the Bike tonight. I don't have the link but I'm sure if you google Live at the Bike it can't be that hard to find.

Sri Lanka - Trip Report

3 weeks ago

haha drunk blogging, hope you all enjoyed :)

ReplyDeletealright, i'll post my question here. i hope it's not too tedious to read....

ReplyDeleteHello Gorge,

First of all, congratulations to the baby!

I’ve been playing hyperturbo satellites on pokerstars lately. And there were some spots I am not quite sure with. Since you are the expert in this game, I’m wondering if you could give some input.

One of the spots I wasn’t sure is on the bubble, when there are 3 players left. Stars changed the structure this year so the payout structure is essentially 0.5,0.5,0. Assuming that each player has 1000 chips, blinds are 50/100/20. According to ICM Nash calculator, the SB can push any two cards into BB. And accordingly, BB should call with 12.5% hands (66+ A7s+ A9o+ KTs+ KQo).

Please let me explain my understanding. With 1000 chips each. Everyone has 33.3% EV. When the SB pushes and BB calls, BB is risking 33.3% EV to win 50%. (if he calls and lost, he lost his 33%; if he calls and win, the game is over and he get 50%, the Button gets 50%-33.3%=16.7% for free.) So BB needs 0.333/0.5=66.7% winning chance to break even. Top 12.5% hands has about 67% winning chance against SB’s range (ATC) and I think that’s why ICM Nash calculator suggests this range.

My question is, however, does BB need to be this tight? I mean, if BB calls and lost, he lost his buyin; if he calls and wins, the game’s over and he doubles (1.94 times his buyin to be exact) his buyin. So he’s risking 1 buyin to win 1.94 buyins, he needs 1/1.94=51.5% winning chance to break even. This is very different from what ICM says (66.7%).

So now I have no idea which calculation I should trust. Could you give me some input on this? I know it may be a little abrupt to ask you but you’re the best hyperturbo player I know so….

Thank you very much

i'm sorry i'm actually somewhat confused by your post.

ReplyDeleteit might help to think of the payout structure as 1,1,0 instead of 0.5,0.5,0. then it might be more obvious that everyone has 67% ev to start the hand (before posting blinds). So in reality you're risking 2 buyins to win 1 buyin (excluding rake), since each of the 3 remaining players has an equity of 2 buyins before the hand starts, since there were 6 total buyins to start with.

hope this helps.

or even think of the payout as 3,3,0, then it will be obvious that everyone's ev is 2 if all stacks are even 3 handed

ReplyDeleteI see where the problem is. If the caller loses, he lost 2 buyins instead of 1. Originally I thought he only lost what he pays. (1 buyin)

ReplyDeleteBut the real equity he has is 2 buyins after he reaches this point.

thanks Gorege.